Bloomberg Line – The Peruvian Sun can continue among the most stable currencies in the region in front Dollar In the rest of 2025, though the intimacy of the election cycle for the presidential Type the pressure sharing risks.
“We believe that the basics that support the Peruvian sun will remain in force in the next quarters”said a Bloomberg Line BBVA Research Chief Economist in Peru, Hugo Pere.
Among these factors he referred to Conditions of exchange and commercial balance in historical highsa Adequate composition of external assets and commitments (Very liquid first and long -term second), Fiscal strength (Despite a certain degree of deterioration in some tax indicators) and Price stability environment.
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Dollar cost to Peru
In this context, Hugo, Pere, in the short term, in the short term The exchange rate will continue to hesitate between S/3.50 and S/3.55 per dollar.
However he also believes that the start of the election campaign by the end of this year “Enter the defensive position on the market, trying to be a little longer in dollars.”
For this reason, the BBVA study forecast at the end of the year is in the range between S/3.55-/3.65 sole per dollar.
Waiting for inflation in Peru
A inflation, Meanwhile, this will remain in the target range of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) this year and 2026, With space for possible pruning rates, According to BBVA Chief Economist.
Hugo Peres predicts that at the end of this year inflation There will be about 2%, with a decrease in prejudice and by the end of 2026 by 2.6%.
These forecasts take into account the environment without pressure pressure on prices, relative exchange stability, fixed expectations in the target range of the central bank and Lack of shocks of supplies (In particular, climatic).
According to the BBVA economist, the risks in these inflation forecasts are prejudiced because it cannot be ruled out Currency can see more or inflation expectations descend on something more.
“The August’s inflation was unexpectedly negative,” he said.
Inflation in Peru In August it fell to the lowest level up to seven years up to 0.29%National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reports.
In the annual terms, the inflation index cooled to 1.11%.
This figure is located very close to the lower limit of the target range of the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP), installed from 1 % to 3 % (inflation).
Interest rates
A meeting of the Central Bank of Peru will be held on Thursday, September 11.
With this inflation scenario and with the economy grows around its potential level, from BBVA research Say.
“In real terms (corrected inflation expectations), this figure today is 2.3%, about a neutral level of 2.0%, that does not stimulate or slow the economic activity and This corresponds to the stability of the price stabilitysaid Hugo Pere.
However, the short -term period does not rule out the reduction of the Central Bank’s rates that inflation expectations may be corrected during inflation in August, while the interest rate of the policy is allocated from a neutral level.
Peuree explained that with the likely reduction of the federal reserve rate in September More space will be made so that the Central Bank of Peru can make its monetary policy more flexible.
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