The electoral result in Buenos -Aires province caused a deep impact on the financial market, comparable only with the reaction after August 2019, when Mauricio Macra It was defeated Albert Fernandez. Despite the fact that the current decline of bonds and actions, along with the increase in the exchange, has not yet exceeded the size of this moment, the alarm between investors and economic analysts was immediate and significant.
The defeat against the advances of Liberty (LLA) in the largest constituency of the country felt strongly, mainly from the weight that the province in the National Register has. Unlike this, the deficit reaction to the market after the result of LLA in Santa –F – if the force barely exceeded eight percent of the vote – shows that not all regional failures create the same system reaction. When the expectation gets on Buenos -Aires, the consequence is multiplied, and it was clearly reflected in market movements.
The main problem is how this instability affects those who do not participate directly in the stock market or in the purchase and sale of bonds. Volatility causes wealth loss for those who have financial assets that quickly move on to reduced consumption in the sector with the highest income and delay, or even cancellation, investment projects.
Imagination of a fragile economy is quickly filtered into the rest of the society, which affects employment and activity at all levels.
Volatility leads to loss of wealth for those who have financial assets that quickly move on to the reduction of consumption
Until recently, those who invested in shares and bonds noted the dollar profits, a phenomenon that encouraged consumption and optimism. A sharp turn of the value of these assets – and subsequent deterioration of capital – causes the waterfall effect, stopping the “party” and affecting the low -income sectors with a reduction in total activity.
The brake for consumption and investment can even reduce tax collection by deepening existing financial problems.
The economy faces intersection. On the one hand, the treasure is forced to confirm more higher interest rates to extend maturity, indicating the distrust of the markets. At the same time, the increase in these rates does not contain pressure on the course, which confirms the loss of the economic policy of the ruling party.
On the other hand, the promotion of Kirchnerism on Buenos -Aires polls created panic: the dollar rose, the country rose to 1100 major points, and the bag felt strong falls. No political option can pass on safety or long -term.
The ruling party is faced with the dilemma not to support the market, keeping the support of the electorate that fears the return of Kirchnerism. In turn, the fear of populism and authoritarianism of the latter blocks any positive reaction in the financial markets. The result is a political system where the trust is completely blurred.
On the discursive plane confrontation strategy taken Javier Miley And its followers eventually created the climate of intolerance. Those who support the opinions, contrary to the government, white insults, even the president himself, while their defenders justify the intervention measures that are contrary to the basics of liberalism proposed by the company. The government’s discursive and practical turn raised doubts inside and outside Argentina, expanding the climate of uncertainty.
Among the most controversial decisions – this Central Bank interventionWhose announced liquidation has never come true. On the contrary, the economic entity intervens, which strongly installing the lace, limiting the storage of dollars by banks and acting on the futures market to hold the exchange rate.
At the same time The treasure is intervened in the exchange market Without reporting daily about the volume and prices for its activities. The opaque in government resources is contrary to the liberal postulates of transparency and clear information about the acts of government.
Another aspect that deepened Beginning became a presentation of an AMPARO request before justice The government asking the media not to publish audio related to possible corruption cases. This is a measure that directly faces the liberal principle of freedom of expression and access to information. The progressive erosion of the national principles ends further, which undermines the official authority.
Stability and growth do not depend solely on technical success in economic matters
The connection between political and economic factors is impossible: stability and growth do not depend solely on the technical success in economic issues, but also on the trust and predictability that it is capable of offering who the managing.
Argentina’s story offers illustrative examples. In 1985 the government Raul Alfansin passed a critical period in economic management in management Bernard Sleeping. Changing the leadership at the Ministry of Economy, taking into account Juan Surul’s life and launch in June the Australian plan changed the expectations of economic agents.
The preferred speech of Alfonsin from the balcony of the box office – providing privatization and sharp adjustment of state expenses, in the so -called war of the economy – brought a change in mood that contributed to the electoral triumph of the average term due to the fall of inflation. What has changed was the ability of the leader to create confidence and change.
The central question is whether it can imitate this turn and convert social humor after the defeat that leaves the obvious continuation. The fundamental difference in 1985 lies in the face of the presidents: where Alfonsin has launched a dialogue and potential for the creation of broad teams, volatility and confrontation, which are shown, are perceived as the main obstacle for the articulation of a reliable plan and the restoration of political and economic mereproofing.
Crisis Management not only will depend on successful economic policyBut also from the reconstruction of confidence, discursive consistency and effective respect for the principles of national liberalism. The task of canceling the election results is required by the leadership, the clarity, of course, and, above all, the possibility of conveying certainty against the exhausted society of swings and improvisations.
