According to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report from consulting firm International Data Corporation (IDC), the global smartphone market will shrink by 12.9% year-on-year to reach 1.12 billion units shipped in 2026.
The figure represents the lowest annual volume in more than a decade and marks a revision from forecasts released last November. According to IDC, the reason may be the intensification of the global memory supply crisis.
For IDC, this impact is not in response to a temporary slowdown in demand, but rather to a structural shock in the supply chain of key components.
Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of worldwide client devices at IDC, explained that this is not a temporary limitation, but rather a “tsunami-type shock to the memory supply chain, with ramifications for the entire consumer electronics industry.”
The memory crisis will have different effects
IDC added that the adjustment will affect manufacturers differently. Android vendors with a strong presence in the low-end will face more pressure from rising component costs and shrinking margins. In many cases, these increases will be passed on to the end consumer.
In contrast, manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung Electronics will be in a better position to absorb the impact, given their scale, diversification and greater exposure to premium segments. IDC expects that, under consolidation, both could even increase their market share as smaller rivals weaken.
In addition to the drop in volume, the price structure will change in the market. IDC predicts that the average selling price (ASP) will grow by 14% in 2026 and reach a record of $523.
Increasing prices for memory and other components will make the sub-$100 segment, currently at 171 million devices, forever unviable.
For the consulting firm, the memory crisis means not only a downward cycle, but also a “structural reset” of the market with long-term consequences for the total addressable size (TAM), product portfolio and composition of the manufacturer’s ecosystem.
IDC predicts stabilization until 2027
IDC expects the crisis to begin to stabilize around mid-2027, with a moderate recovery of 2% that year and a stronger rebound of 5.2% in 2028. However, memory prices are unlikely to return to previous levels, suggesting that the market will not return to pre-crisis conditions.
If the scenario is confirmed, 2026 will be a turning point for the global mobile industry with lower volume, higher average price and a more concentrated competitive structure, the IDC report concludes.
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