This year, the currency decreases by 6.7%, from S/ 3,76 to S/ 3511, the level that has a paragon with observed 26 years ago because in 1999, in the prelude to the present century, this noted the same price in front of the sun.
“The exchange rate is at the level of the late 1999”, According to the head of economic research BCP, Carlos Pieta, emphasizing that this stability of Peruvian currency in such a long period contrasts with cushionings suffering from Latin American coins against dollar.
Such shocking sun performance is not free. Executive participation reflected on the macroeconomic foundations of the country, the distinctive feature almost turned into the litany of economists, but, as for La Moneda, has a handle.
“Even in recent years, Peruvian inflation is lower than in the US, forces that have no other countries,” “ The receipt stood out.
The evolution of the dollar by August
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What variables will affect the dollar drop?
In the previous quarter, the analyst noted that the models outlined the dollar less than the S/ 3.60, which effectively happened. But he is not the only bearish forecasts for the US currency. At the end of last month, the director of the Macro -Picture FICC, Félix Olivares, awaits Estion.Pe at the end of last month, which in September this currency even re -received to S/ 3.51.
It is also something that an unmatched external environment allowed to strengthen this trajectory in 2025, such as the fact that the exchange conditions for Peru, or the connection between the prices to which the country is exported and the issues, are the best in the last 75 years, as he has acknowledged.
Gold, silver and copper expose record deposits Either the largest in decades, which leads to exceeding the $ 27,000 million trade balance, a record that goes hand with an export of $ 83,000 on the anniversary by July and the current blue -year account, he claimed.
This is added to the global dollar weakness, which, as its correlates, simultaneously strengthen the assets and currencies of other countries, such as developing markets, he added.
Dollar decline is to increase the prospects from -under Federal Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate The US, given the cooling of your job market, with job creation numbers in recent months much lower than the expectedAnd despite the fact that inflation in this country resists to descend to the target of 2% per annum and is located closer to 3%, the economist said.
This data, in turn, partially respond to President Donald Trump’s policies who, Rigster’s tariffs, are distorted in trade He considered with other countries and in his own economic activity.
Peru has strengths, unlike other Latin American countries that allow the dollar to decline, says Carlos Acie with BCP.
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What are the forecasts for the 2026 exchange rate?
With the variable models described indicate the dollar level A/ 3,50 in the short term, leveled at its current price, and with S/ 3,45 at the end of 2026, the apple said.
“The dollar weakness, the product of the new Trump administration, according to our models, notes that the sun’s fortress should even be stored after the elections (…), we, the product of very favorable exchange terms, with four consecutive years with a modern excess, commercial balance, and we believe that it activates the estimationhe said.
Although the bank’s basic scenario provides the course in S/ 3.45 at the end of 2026, when they are favorable, it may be a Prepa, near S/ 3.30, according to some models, he added.
However, he stressed that this is not a basic scene, but another careful (S/. 3.45).
“There is a lot of external and local uncertainty, but we must be very modest in the forecasts, recognizing uncertainty.”he said.
This year, the dollar is decreasing against coins from developed countries. (Photo: GEC)
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How will the dollar close this year?
BCP projects, which this year the US currency will close into S/ 3,65, which provides ascension from the current levels, reduced the presumption that election polls would weigh at that time.
But if these polls do not head candidates that are concerned about the market, the green ticket would end in 2025 at the current levels close to S/ 3.50, Carlos received.
(Tagstotranslate) dollar
