The government came out publicly to guarantee the intervention of the Ministry of Economy to keep the dollar at the end to the end The electoral processAlthough some voices of the executive power believe that the problem of lack of liquidity in the market may extend Behind this moment In the calendar and more careful.
The economic team assured through the finance secretary, Pablo Kurno, and the director of the Central Bank, Federico FurosisIn an interview on Tuesday evening and this Wednesday morning, the treasures in dollars are responding to the financial climate, which in the Palace of Finance acknowledges extraordinary tension.
This tension already had a translation a few weeks ago with the escalation of interest rates, in the middle of the two -week momentum with banks to upgrade bonds into Peso. The Ministry of Economy has tried to control the number of “free” pesos with these tenders and with the restructuring at bank lace levels. In July in July, he crossed in August and in August, he crossed almost 15% He jumped up Earlier this week, the latter before the Buenos -Aires election.
Secretary Finance Risks even the instability of Monday this week was linked to the only punctual operation that would do Chinese Bank. Quirno spoke about potential growth of 40 pesos in the exchange rate with a permanent amount, on the day when the sales of the single change market was almost 40% lower than in August, explained by the US holiday. Economist Fernando Marul he said in X That this bank’s operation may be related to one of the measures that BCRA was in a hurry last week.
Quirno put the situation with exchange in a complex political climate. “It must be placed in front of the election in which we live, where we have an opposition that has decided to force Argentines. We have seen in recent weeks a sequence of deliberate action,” he said. “The rates are also the daughters of the political conflict. Because the political conflict creates uncertainty. What the government is constantly doing, Congress in this situation is to try to attack the economic program and the State Program Center,” he said.
Other voices in government who consulted Infobae In the last hours they believe that reading is not so linear regarding market standardization immediately after the end of the election process More autonomous dynamics And more in the second semester of the year, when the thick part of the currency is already over, and just engaged in a great crop at the end of the year.
This morning, the PXQ report also arose this idea: “The performance of the economic team from July was that these measures are temporary and as soon as the LLA triumph is materialized in the election, the demand for peso will be restored, and the interest rate will return to the previous level. This argument is two problems,” Emmanuel Alvarez Agis.
In the first place, this “the ruling party is unnecessary (since it came to the presidency, losing the PBA both in the general and in the second round) Vara is a very altAnd “about the electoral activity in this province. In addition, he mentioned that” so that the demand for peso is recovered, should increase supply and/or demand for dollars. First unimaginableWhile the second, it seems, a decisive path, taking into account the risk of joining the recession, ”he said.
In the prelude to the announcement of Quirno, the market has already shown signs of treasure intervention in the gear market during August. According to Personal Inversions Portfolio (PPI), falling in BCRA dollar deposits for $ 23 million on Friday, without payments planned by international organizations, it allows you to estimate that the operation is $ 156 million. “Adding a drop in the BCRA treasure field for BCRA for 23 million on Friday -in the fact that there were no payments -we believe that Augustus was derived from 156 million dollars“, Explained from the consultant.
It’s like the last story. According to unofficial estimates, the initial Treasury intervention would be some 180 million dollarsBetween $ 130 million per day of the announcement and another 50 million this Wednesday. According to this calculation, the figures are about $ 285 million. The FEP report explained that although there is no certain period, the intervention operation will initially be extended three business days and may be extended to October Legislative elections, depending on the Buenos -Aires election results and its political and financial impact.
IPP also emphasized that gross reserves BCRA rose by $ 731 million “Not explaining” It was $ 630 million. “Our reading is that this movement responds mainly to the usual reshuffle of dollars at the beginning of the month, after a strong fall in August, which was not fixed on the same scale on Monday,” they said.
