The Peruvian Sun has reached the lowest level in five years, closing on September 9 to S/3,4980, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). With this, the local currency violated the S/3.50 threshold, considered the appropriate technical and psychological level for market exchange.
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According to preliminary estimates, the tendency, when it used to be an opportunity rather than a fact, is based on a commercial surplus on July, which reached $ 2,523 million – and in a stable Central Reserve Bank (BCRP), which reduced 325 major points since the end of 2023 and currently supported by 4.50%.
The last time the dollar was below S/3.50 was in May 2020. Source: BCRP
This is added inflation in Lima, which in August fell -0.29% and accumulates 1.24% this year within the target range. “This stock allows BCRP to maintain stability and evaluate the consequences of previous cuts, while the sun contributes to the currency generation in a changing global context,” said Felip Mendos, ATFX Latam analyst.
Mendos himself noted that the recent dollar drop against the sun does not obey both internal factors, but with the expected markets in anticipation of the rate in the US.
“Low rates are usually reflected in the weakened dollar worldwide, and in this context, Trump administration can also find a weaker dollar because it reduces debt funding and increases the competitiveness of exports within its tariff policy,” he said.
Why did the dollar fall today?
The Peruvian sun closed the day with a high gratitude of 2.76%, after opening at 35198 and reaching an intraculosis of 3.4225, the level that coincided with the closing price, and this was not noticed with the pandemic in 2020. This movement noted one of the most relevant sessions of the year for Vareno, stretching both external factors and Pandemia.
In the economic front, foreign trade data provided great support, Peru’s exports reached $ 40,022 million by July, which is a 17.1% increase per year, supported by mining and agribusiness. This rebound strengthens the commercial balance and raises the proposal of dollars on the market, which has provided increased pressure for the course. In parallel, the crafts reported stable financial profit in August, strengthening the potential of the state to maintain social costs and investments in infrastructure in the context of greater political pressure.
In institutional issues, the Ministry of Defense presented its plans to modernize the armed forces aimed at strengthening territorial protection and the ability to respond to emergencies. Although this announcement does not have a direct effect on the currency, it really contributes to the perception of stability and management, factors that support the trust of investors in the medium period.
According to Mendosa, the combination of factors from the external front responds that due to a possible decrease in type, inflation control that supports BCRP in a state to support its standard speed by 4.5%, and grows the flow of currency, which enhances stability.
However, the attention is focused on the fact that it will come with inflation in the United States in the coming days, which can ignite the vocal dollar, as well as the local commercial balance and the solution that will determine whether the sun could consolidate its strength or the correct part of the profit. The immediate technical range is from 3.42 to 3.50, with the risk of bears’ continuity to new lows when the numbers are accompanied.
How much will the dollar arrive in 2026, BCP reports?
According to the Peru Credit Bank (BCP), the exchange rate will close this year by S/3.65 per dollar, and in 2026 it will be placed in S/3.45. According to the subject, the sun force responds to strong bases, such as external accounts, a strong increase in exports and conditions of exchange in historical highs.
The bank even claims that when the April 2026 election is developed with a favorable result for the market, the dollar may return to the prepaandemia level, near S/3.30.
“Several macroeconomic factors indicate the gratitude of the sun, although external events or local uncertainty can cause pressure on the short -term depreciation,” the BCP warned.
When was the last dollar decreased with S/3.50?
On the external front, Mendoza reminded that the past episodes demonstrated the ability of the sun to estimate the dollar cycles. In July 2023, USDPEN went to 3.55, the lowest level of the year, supported by local macroeconomic stability and high mining income, in a global context in which the dollar weakened after reducing the inflation than expected.
Between 2017 and 2018, he added, also a similar stage, and the sun praised to 3.20-3.21 per dollar before the US currency returned it to 3.40.
What is the range 3.40–3.50 became a link during a pandemWhen political uncertainty and capital exit noted the course between March to December 2020.
“Today, the sun has returned to these levels, and when the tendency of the dollar is deepened, it does not exclude that it falls to the square from 3.45 to 3.40, the level that we historically saw only in the middle of the pandemic,” Mendos added.
Why is the federal reserve rate reduced?
The international context remains decisive. A Federal Reservoir (Fed) According to market expectations, the US can reduce interest rates to three times by the end of the year. This possible adjustment responds to the weakness of the labor market and slowing inflation, factors that directly affect bonds, actions, currencies and raw materials.
“Tools such as the Fedwatch CME tool are already declining with more than 90% of the first reduction in September and then two additional in October and December, and the space will even expand them in 2026,” he said.
Jonathan Torres, the Capitaria Peru analyst, emphasized that the manufacturer’s price index (IPP) will become key because it involves inflation pressure that then affects the IPC and the decisions of the federal reserve. When the IPP is surprising, the dollar can restore the earth and reduce the flows to new assets such as the Peruan Sun.
Inflation expectations in New York showed ambiguous signals: inflation for one year is 3.2% (with 3%), and three -years expectations are stored by 3% and 2.9%. However, the financial perception of households has deteriorated, with greater fear of losing work and more difficulties in access to the loan.
Mendos warned that the volatility would be concentrated between Wednesday and Thursday, with the publication of IPP (0.3% monthly and 3.6% of the expected annual), IPC (2.9% compared to 2.7%) and the ECB decision (2.15%).
“Given Trump’s political pressure and economic deterioration, the story that the federal reserve should act, reducing the types that somehow limits its independence, but reacts to the macroeconomic urgency of this point.
