“Another Black Swan”, analysts determine the defeat of the ruling party in Buenos -Aires. Despite the fact that the Patria force is expected to first go in the elections, the polls, nor the market itself could anticipate the difference of 14 points, which became a big failure for the executive in the October elections. This news has caused a direct impact on the market: the dollar rose, and in some banks the ceiling of the flotation strip came to play in the morning.
With the start of the week, The official official course closed at $ 1418.75. It was a jump of $ 53.76 compared to last Friday (+3.94%), although in the first talks of the day it touched up to $ 1,450. Despite the failure, the official interventions would not be detected throughout the circle.
In it National Bank, Background quote for the rest of the financial organizations, ended on the screens at $ 1425. It was an escalation of $ 45 per circle (+3.2%), although it was set up after reaching $ 1,460 during the opening. Similarly, it was the highest nominal value than you recorded.
In other banks, the flotation strips were disputed. Morning Macro -Bank, BBVA and Supervielle They came to offer dollars through Homemade characteristic Up to $ 1470, although with launch hours they adjusted the price and finished about $ 1,440.
The postcard, which was a hot day for Mercado’s change, was also a pause for the Medal Payment case. “We have delays in dollars,” the poster warned when entering the currency purchase section, and the cost was still static at $ 1400, but without the opportunity to buy it. Finally, after noon, the problem was canceled and worked up to $ 1424.
With a market inconsistencyThe average value was about $ 1435.16According to a daily survey of the financial organizations made by the Central Bank (BCRA).
“Nothing will change economically. Neither in the financialsaid Economy Minister last night Luis Kaputa, Looking for rest to the market.
In the middle of the April, when the government announced a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a flotation scheme was created. At this time, a $ 1,000 floor was created and $ 1400 per wholesale, although these values are regulated daily at a rate of 1% a month. Today updated, about $ 953 and $ 1470, respectively.
When the dollar reaches the maximum planned value, the Central Bank (BCRA) may go for sale. If you punch a minimum, you can buy them. However, if the market for the changes pressed from the middle -after disparants The treasure also interferes with the labels of the flood.
“Today, the market has suffered a rather strong blow, both in bonds, actions, and in the course. It would seem that the government was outside the spot market, but probably selling futures. The dollar became 2% of the top strip, but then weakened for the closure. In the same way, the bonds declined to 10%, but by the south the buyers began to appear, closing from 6% to 9% below Friday, “” Analytics “.
In this tension scenario, Financial exchange rates They also launched and They touched on a new nominal record. Dollar European Parliament, It became popular during the currency exchange rate, so that the Argentines are legally dolled, closed to $ 1434.92. It was an escalation of $ 51.59 a day, which is 3.7%equivalent.
The dollar was calculated with the liquidation Allowing the currencies to a bank account outside Argentina this Monday ended at $ 1439.27. This was an increase of $ 48.75 (+3.5%).
So, both the deputy and the one who is in cash They have reached the highest nominal value than registration, Because they exceed $ 1,428, which both quotes played in July last year. For personal portfolio analysts in investment, Holding the group more than $ 1470, it looks “more difficult than when -the” when a “black swan” happened.
“This is far from a currency exchange rate overlapping (Excessive reaction) “, They explained. ComparedThe historical average of the real course between January 1997 to August 2025 amounted to $ 1618 in Peso. In traumatic episodes, such as the 2019 step, together with the changes, he reached the elections with the dollar, equivalent today, seeing $ 1,300, but was withdrawn for $ 2000 with an exchange launch caused after the Albert Fernandez triumph. Two weeks later the exchange was re -.
“We admit that the current situation is different because Javier Miles administration is two years ahead to change the course. However the task is to contain the current roof of the group in the context of the competitive kirchnerism“They emphasized. They also warned: to intervene in the circle, because today it will be a bad sign, because it is interpreted as a” waste of precious ammunition. “
On the streets Town Porten, The blue dollar was agreed at $ 1385 in caves, growth by $ 15 compared to Friday (+1.1%). In the morning, many exchange houses reduced the sale and stopped reporting quotes, although the situation was normalized in the afternoon.
For Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist Grupo SBS, Government is facing the exchange of dilemma. On the one hand Let the exchange rate floating, even over the exchange strip, That can relieve pressure through external accounts. Of course, this would have short -term inflation. Out of the other Respect the Flot Strip and sell dollars to limit the impact on prices, But with the market it is interesting how long you can do it, what cash will bring as a supplement and what impact it will be on economic activity.
“Modern conditions after the monetary squeezing of recent months are a capital problem in the market that has brought a negative verdict regarding the election results. The issue is in case the government rearranges the situation, both at the level of the Macro pressure level, and whether it may not change the current image of the defeat for October.”
Claim Bond Sovereignty presented 9% drop at the wheel, What would lead to the country risks overcoming the barrier from 1000 main points. However, screens are months ago when the data is delayed one day. Index prepared by JP Morgan did not show four digits Since October last year.
“The market reaction was predictable. The market was Priceando The difference of five points. Of course, the difference of 13-14 points is the novelty and Bad news for the market. In August 2019, the memory is still fresh in the memory of the operators, and so you have a reaction you had. The president must fulfill his word to analyze the defeat and make corrections in the political wing, “said Martin Saran, an economist of the International Basic Fund.
