Gold (Xau/USD) begins with an impressive bullish note, firing new historical highs above $ 3,600 per ounce on Monday. Last week, the movement expands the rebound in the middle of the growing belief that the federal reserve system (Fed) will reduce interest rates at the September monetary policy that has changed, which the markets are now considering almost certainly after a number of weak data from a safe asylum to the US labor market.
At the time of writing, the writing Xau/USD quotes about $ 3635, entering the unknown territory, as the US dollar (USD) is generally weaker and the expectations of the Fed Fast Fertilizer remain demand. Last week’s economic publications have confirmed that the labor market in the US is losing impulse. In the non -payable salary report (NFP) on Friday, the US economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, which is much lower than 75,000 forecasts, while unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since the end of 2021. Low for employment is increasing “, describing the job market as in” curious balance “, where both demand for work and the demand of workers.
In addition, a broader feeling continues to provide strong support for gold. Global Central Banks continue to increase their reserves to diversify US dollars and treasures in the midst of concern for inflation, weakened by those responsible for the Fed’s policy and threats. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and global commercial friction increase in the process of increasing the demand for a safe shelter. Strengthening the role of gold as a reserve of value, being close to record levels.
Market movements: World risks increase when fed fed
- The US dollar (DXY) index, which stems from the dollar value against the basket of six major currencies, stabilizes after the mass sale on Friday, but still under pressure. During the writing index round 97.50, near the lower end of the narrow range, installed since August.
- The yield of US Treasury bonds falls on the fourth consecutive day on Monday, with a 10 -year profitability, supporting about 4.051%, its lowest level since April, and 30 -year -old -cositating about 4 714%, at least in May. A 2 -year -old bonus crop sensitive, also under pressure, about 3.48%, reflecting solid relaxation expectations by the Fed.
- Before the employment data in the United States, the operators completely reduced the rate of 25 major points (PB) at the Fed session of September 16-17. After publication of the weaker NFP expected, the markets now assign approximately 10% likely a higher speed reduction of 50 PB, compared to the nearly zero week ago, while the probability of reducing 25 -PB persists by about 90%, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Evaluation of futures also suggests that investors are expecting up to three cuts by the end of the year.
- Political uncertainty in Japan shook markets after announcing Prime Minister Shiger Isibr’s resignation, which caused the leadership of the leadership in the ruling party. Japanese Yen (JPY) is under new pressure, while the yield of Japanese government bonds has grown slightly when investors are expecting clarity regarding the financial and monetary position of their successor.
- The French government is on the border of the collapse, as Prime Minister François Bayru is confronted with the vote later today at about 5:00 pm. Bayrou is looking for parliamentary support for its financial plan, which shows 44,000 million euros in costs by 2026, including freezing, payments and tax deposits, as well as strict cost restrictions. When Bayru loses the next trust voice, President Emmanuel Macron may appoint a new prime minister who has the support of a fragmented parliament or causes early parliamentary elections.
- The risk of commercial policy was the focus after the applications of the US Treasury Scott Holnt, who said that “confident” president’s tariff strategy would finally be supported by the Supreme Court, but acknowledged the risks when the administration loses. In an interview with NBC on Sunday, the inflatory warned that the cancellation of the tariffs would force the treasure to cover about half of the rates. He warned that if the case would be extended to the middle of the 20126, it may be required to cancel $ 750 to $ 1 billion in tariffs, which causes large violations.
- This week, a light economic calendar from the United States notes the emphasis on inflation data, with the price index (IPP) scheduled for Wednesday and the most critical report of the Consumer Price Index (IPC) on Thursday. Given the Fed tariffs in September, these publications are the key events that are likely to affect when those responsible for politics choose a standard 25 BP movement or consider greater reduction.
Technical Analysis: The Bull Trends Xau/USD remains intact despite the stretched RSI
On Monday, Xau/USD expands its growth by raising new historical highs about $ 3,640 after leaving the $ 3,500 consolidation area last week. The $ 3,500 assembly outside the region led to the metal to the unexplored territory, supporting the overall trend of firmly bull, while buyers remain under control.
The technical basis continues to promote growth. Gold is cited much above its short and medium -term mobile socks, which reflects a strong basic momentum. At the same time, the relative force index (RSI) is deeply supported in the Overcompra, noting that although the growth trend remains intact, the risk of corrective failures cannot be ruled out. The average focus index (ADX) above 30 even more confirms the strength of the current rebound.
At the bottom, level $ 3550 is supported as direct support in the case of benefits, and then $ 3,500 as the next defense line. At the top, the following goal, such as 3,650 dollars and $ 3,700.
Gold – frequent questions
Gold played a fundamental role in human history because it was widely used as a field and half exchange. Currently, in addition to its brightness and use for jewelry, precious metal is considered an active shelter, which means that it is considered a good investment in tumultuous times. Gold is also considered to be lighting on inflation and cushioning of currencies, as it does not depend on a specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the largest owners of gold. In their goal, support their currencies in tumultuous times, central banks seek to diversify their stocks and buy gold to improve the perception of economy and currency. High gold reserves can be a source of trust for the country’s solvency. Central banks added 1136 tons of gold worth 70,000 million to their armor in 2022, according to the World Council for Gold. This is the biggest annual purchase because there are records. Central banks of new economies, such as China, India and Turk, quickly increase their gold stocks.
Gold has back correlation with US dollars and US treasury bonds, which are the main reserves and shelters. When the dollar decreases, the price of gold seeks to rise, allowing investors and central banks to diversify their assets in tumultuous times. Gold also correlates with risk assets. The stock market rebounds to weaken the price of gold, while mass sales in markets with higher risks tend to prefer precious metals.
The cost of gold can move from a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession can lead to rapid increase in the value of gold from the state of active shelter. As an asset without harvest, the price of gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease and money increases to yellow metal. However, most movements depends on how the US dollar (USD) behaves because the asset is cited in dollars (Xau/USD). A strong dollar strives to maintain the price of gold, while the weakest dollar is probably tilting gold prices.
